With so many middle-market companies outsourcing manufacturing operations abroad, what happens on the trade front is crucial. “If companies are not able to import to the U.S., especially from Southeast Asia,” said Chadwick, “it will disrupt a critical part of the supply chain.”

Government contractors are already feeling the pain, said Haywood Miller, managing director at Berkeley Research Group. “The discord in Washington over trade has put budget planning on the backburner,” he said. Trade policies impact government procurement competition both in the U.S. and abroad. There’s not much to bank on when it comes to procurement deals, said Miller. “The big contractors are venturing down into lower-level contracts, competing against their former subcontractors. That’s the mid-tier squeeze.”

Restrictions on trade could stunt profit and growth, but it is not yet apparent what new policies will emerge.